Illuminations: Least Squares Regression

Least Squares Regression


Traveling Distances

In this lesson, students interpret the meaning of the slope and y-intercept of the graph of real-life data. By examining the graphical representation of the data, students relate the slope and y-intercept of the least squares regression line to the real-life data. They also interpret the correlation coefficient of the resulting least squares regression line.

Learning Objectives

 

Students will

  • plot data points
  • interpret the positive slope of a line as a rate of change in the context of real-life data
  • interpret the y-intercept of a line in the context of real-life data
  • interpret the meaning of the correlation coefficient of the least squares regression line

Materials

 
  • Computer and Internet connection
  • Buttons
  • Crayons
  • Paper strips with 10 spaces
  • Status of the Class recording sheet

Instructional Plan

To introduce this lesson, the class should engage in a review of the meaning of slope, as the change in y over the change in x or rise over run, and the meaning of the y-intercept , as the point where a graph crosses the y-axis. Students should also discuss least squares regression lines and correlation coefficients. Guiding questions are as follows:

  1. What is the slope of a line?
  2. What does the slope tell us about the direction of a line? What does the slope tell us about the steepness of a line?
  3. What is the y-intercept of a line?
  4. What do we know about the y-intercept of any graph?
  5. What is a least squares regression line?
  6. What is a correlation coefficient?
  7. What does the correlation coefficient tell us about the points being plotted and the resulting least squares regression line?

During the remainder of this lesson the teacher begins to help students make the connection between the slope of a line and its meaning as the rate of change in a real-life application. The meaning of the y-intercept in the context of the same application is also investigated.

A discussion of a real-life example of a linear function should now take place. One example might be to ask the class about traveling distances. “If you were traveling 50 miles per hour, how far would you travel in one hour? Two hours? Three hours?”

The teacher should go to the Web site: http://illuminations.nctm.org/index_d.aspx?id=454 and demonstrate how to change the window settings and graph the responses given to the questions regarding traveling distances above. The points that are plotted should be the number of hours traveled vs. the number of miles traveled. After the points have been plotted, the teacher should stop to direct the students’ focus to some of the mathematics involved in the plot.

  • Do you notice any pattern in the shape of the plot?
  • What type of function do you think will fit this data?
  • Do you think the slope of the line will be positive or negative?
  • What do you think the y-intercept of the line might be?

The teacher should now have the applet draw the least squares regression line and calculate the correlation coefficient. Direct the students’ attention to the slope of the line and ask what relationship it has to the original questions they were asked about traveling distances. The teacher should direct the students to interpret the slope of 50 as the 50 miles per hour in the original problem. This value indicates a rate of change; it indicates how many miles per hour the vehicle traveled. Ask what label would have been appropriate for each axis and how this information could help them calculate the rate of change. Tie this information into the formula for slope, the change in y divided by the change in x.

Next, examine ideas related to the y-intercept of the line. When the points (1, 50), (2, 100), and (3, 150) are plotted, this applet gives a y-intercept of –0.89. Ask the students what this number means in the context of this problem. Direct the classroom discussion so that the students see that the y-intercept in the applet means that if the vehicle traveled for 0 hours, it would travel –0.89 miles. Does this make sense? Explain that this is the predicted value, not the actual value. Ask how the appropriate labels on the axes can help the students interpret the meaning of the y-intercept in the context of this problem.

The correlation coefficient should be discussed next. Ask the students to explain what the correlation coefficient of 1 means in terms of this example. Direct the questioning to get the students to see that the line passes through the data points. Focus in on the fact that a value of 1 indicated a linear relationship exactly.

The students should now be given a copy of the handout Graphing Real-Life Data. They should be given the opportunity to label the axes, indicate the scale, plot the points we had used on the applet, draw the line through the data, and fill in the remaining information for the first graph on the handout. Grouping the students in pairs while they do this part of the lesson will allow them to discuss what they are doing and help reinforce the ideas in the lesson.

As the students work, the teacher should circulate among the students to observe their work and answer any questions they may have at this point. After they have finished their work on the first graph, the teacher and students should summarize the lesson by completing the items next to the graph on the handout. The students should then be directed to save their handout for the next day’s lesson.

Assessment Options

 

A discussion at the end of the graphing activity will give both the teacher and the students an opportunity to assess the students’ understanding of the lesson. At this stage of the activity it is important to know if the students can:

  • Correctly plot data points by hand
  • Interpret the meaning of the slope as a rate of change in the context of this problem
  • Interpret the meaning of the y-intercept in the context of this problem
  • Understand the meaning of the correlation coefficient for this problem
  • Interpret the meaning of the labels and units on each of the axes

Using the handout along with the class discussion helps the students focus on the mathematics involved in the graph. The handout also provides information the students can use to help them answer questions in other parts of this Unit Plan.

A Teacher Resource Sheet, Status of the Class can be used for recording information about students’ understanding of this and other lessons in the Unit Plan. It is helpful to record students’ current levels of understanding as a way to plan instruction and to monitor and measure their growth toward meeting the learning objectives. Documenting information about students’ understanding throughout the lesson(s) can help you focus on the needs and strengths of individual students, and thus can improve student learning opportunities.

The assessment information you collect can help you monitor student learning, adjust instruction, and plan future lessons for the class. Data on individual students can be used to plan strategies for regrouping students, remediation, and extension activities. This information is extremely useful when discussing progress toward learning targets with students, parents, administrators, and colleagues.

Teacher Reflection

 
  1. Which students met all the objectives of this lesson? What extension activities are appropriate for those students?
  2. Which students did not meet the objectives of this lesson? What instructional experiences do they need next? What mathematical ideas need clarification?
  3. What adjustments would you make the next time you teach this lesson?

NCTM Standards and Expectations

 
Data Analysis & Probability 9-12
  1. Understand histograms, parallel box plots, and scatterplots and use them to display data.
  2. Understand the meaning of measurement data and categorical data, of univariate and bivariate data, and of the term variable.
  3. Recognize how linear transformations of univariate data affect shape, center, and spread.
  
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NCTM Resources

Navigating through Data Analysis in Grades 9‑12

Web Sites


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