Illuminations: Least Squares Regression

Least Squares Regression


Automobile Mileage: Years Since 1990 vs. Mileage

This lesson is a third representation of the automobile mileage data used in Lessons Five and Six of this Unit Plan. This lesson provides another opportunity for the students to analyze how changing the independent variable in a set of data can result in a different least squares regression line. Students can then use the new equation to make some of the same predictions they made in Lessons Five and Six.

Learning Objectives

 

Students will

  • interpret slope as a rate of change in the context of real-life data
  • interpret the y-intercept in the context of “real-world” data
  • make predictions based on the least squares regression line
  • explain the difference between actual values and predicted values

Materials

 

Instructional Plan

This lesson should begin with a review of what the students learned in Lessons Five and Six of this Unit Plan. Having them restate what they learned will help reinforce the concepts of that activity and give the teacher another opportunity to assess students’ understanding. Today’s activity should begin with a general discussion of what students think the scatter plot of years (year of make) since 1990 vs. mileage will look like. Do they think the least squares regression line will have a positive or negative slope? How do they think the y-intercept of this line will compare to that in Lessons Five and Six?

Students should be divided into teams of two to work at the computer. If possible the students should continue to work with the same partner they had while doing Lessons Five and Six. Each student should be given a copy of the handout Automobile Mileage—Years Since 1990 vs. Mileage (or a similar handout of student-produced data). They should visit the Web site: http://illuminations.nctm.org/index_d.aspx?id=454
Working together, the partners can share the responsibility of making sure the data is plotted correctly. One student should plot the data, while the second reads out loud the data and makes sure it is plotted correctly.

Students should click on the applet and make the changes in the viewing window indicated on the handout. As the students begin to plot the data, walk from group to group, making sure the students are plotting the data correctly. Encourage students to think about the data they are plotting and the resulting plots. Ask Guiding Questions such as the following as you monitor and facilitate the group work. It would be beneficial if time allowed the class to look at data on years like 1989, 1988, etc.. How would students handle this?

  1. Are you beginning to notice any pattern in the shape of the plot?
  2. What type of function do you think will fit this data?
  3. Do you think the slope of the line will be positive or negative?
  4. What do you think the y-intercept of the regression line might be?

Allow the students to complete the plot and answer the questions on the handout. Continue to circulate and facilitate discourse between the partners while they complete this portion of the activity.

After completing the questions on the handout, students should be given the opportunity to discuss their findings as a class. The questions on the handout can be used to help guide this discussion. This will encourage students to reflect on what they have discovered about the graphical and algebraic representations of the data and allow them to strengthen their understanding of slope as a rate of change. The teacher should pay particular attention to the students’ understanding of the units used on both the horizontal and vertical axes.

Assessment Options

 

The discussion will give both the teacher and students an opportunity to assess the students’ understanding of the lesson. At this stage of the activity it is important to know if students can:

  • Correctly plot data points on the applet
  • Determine if a least squares regression line is actually a good fit for the data being graphed
  • Interpret slope as a rate of change
  • Explain a negative rate of change
  • Interpret the meaning of the y-intercept
  • Understand the meaning of the correlation coefficient
  • Use the units on the axes as an aid in interpreting the meaning of the slope and y-intercept
  • Explain the difference between actual values and predicted values

The questions on the handout help students focus on the mathematics and aid you in determining the students’ level of understanding of the mathematical concepts in this lesson. If you began using Status of the Class to record students’ understanding of Lesson One of this Unit Plan, continue to document student understanding and progress. Documenting information about students’ understanding throughout the lesson(s) can help you focus on the needs and strengths of individual students, and thus can improve student learning opportunities.

Teacher Reflection

 
  1. Which students met all the objectives of this lesson? What extension activities are appropriate for those students?
  2. Which students did not meet the objectives of this lesson? What instructional experiences do they need next? What mathematical ideas need clarification?
  3. What adjustments would you make the next time you teach this lesson?

NCTM Standards and Expectations

 
Data Analysis & Probability 9-12
  1. Understand how basic statistical techniques are used to monitor process characteristics in the workplace.
  2. Evaluate published reports that are based on data by examining the design of the study, the appropriateness of the data analysis, and the validity of conclusions
  
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NCTM Resources

Principles and Standards for School Mathematics

Web Sites


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